Geostrategic Resilience 2026: Hybrid Warfare and Operational Sovereignty

The launch session for the “Geostrategic Resilience 2026: Hybrid Warfare and Operational Sovereignty” brought together experts to explore how modern conflict is evolving and what this means for organisational resilience. Key takeaways from the discussion include:

Understanding hybrid warfare

• Definition and scope: Hybrid warfare is defined as competition and confrontation that occurs below the legal threshold of war. It involves the coordinated use of military and non-military instruments of power, such as cyber attacks, disinformation, and sabotage, to accomplish strategic objectives.
• Strategic objectives: Adversaries use these tactics to achieve goals while avoiding a direct response. The methods are deliberately ambiguous, deniable, and gradual.
• Targeting the “will”: A primary goal of hybrid warfare is to defeat a society’s political and national “will” to fight. It aims to undermine infrastructure and make policy decisions harder to execute.
• The use of proxies: Due to increased global biometrics and harder crackdowns on formal espionage, states are increasingly using criminal networks and third-party proxies to carry out deniable operations, such as sabotage or targeted attacks.

The global and UK context

• A “Polycrisis” environment: The world is experiencing a succession of overlapping crises driven by technological change, societal shifts, and geopolitical friction between major powers like the US, Russia, and China.
• The UK in the “Grey Zone”: The UK is already considered to be in a “grey zone” warfare situation, facing an increasing number of hybrid attacks targeting both the government and private businesses.
• Fragmenting world order: The previous US-led international order is fragmenting into a more competitive and difficult world where international rules are increasingly disregarded.

Implications for businesses and resilience

• Businesses as the front line: Businesses are now at the center of security and resilience efforts, as they are often the targets of hybrid tactics, like supply chain disruption or cyber warfare.
• “No Regret” strategies: Organisations are encouraged to adopt “no regret” strategies, actions that provide value regardless of the specific geopolitical outcome, rather than just “winning” strategies.
• Whole-of-society approach: Building resilience requires more than just government action; it necessitates a networked approach involving the private sector and the broader society working together.
• Pattern recognition: It is often difficult to prove a single incident is state-sponsored sabotage, but businesses must look for patterns (e.g., an increase in “accidental” fires or disruptions) and prepare for higher overall risk.

Future focus of the programme

• Learning from the Front Lines: It will feature insights from countries on the front lines, such as Poland, Ukraine, Estonia, and Finland.
• Operational sovereignty: It will address rebuilding the resilience of UK infrastructure and operations.
• Scenario Exercises: Participants will take part in a scenario exercise to “stress test” their organisational preparedness in a safe environment.

Watch the full session below to explore the discussion in depth.